Datafolha: Bolsonaro’s rating worsens, and 53% disapproval is a new record for the president

After the most tense week of his term, in which he preached coup to crowds on the 7th of September, President Jair Bolsonaro continues with his disapproval in an uptrend. She reached 53%, the worst rate in her term.

That’s what Datafolha measured on September 13th to 15th, when the institute heard 3,667 people over the age of 16, in 190 municipalities across the country. The margin of error is plus or minus two points.

The positive oscillation within the margin of error in relation to the record set in a survey carried out in July, with a 51% failure rate, continues the upward curve since December last year.

The president is evaluated as good or excellent by 22%, a negative variation of the 24% in the previous poll, which already indicated the worst index of his term. 24% consider it regular, the same rate as in July.

This suggests that the scenes of the 7th of September, with full Paulista Avenue, for example, reproduce a photograph of the declining niche of the Pocketnarismo among the population. If he wanted to do more than magnetize the faithful, Bolsonaro failed.

On the other hand, the President’s retreat after pressure institutional against its coup rhetoric targeting the Supreme Court, also had no noticeable impact in the form of an abrupt drop in support for the president at its base—as had been gauged in social network interactions.

This rejection tendency remains constant this year, after a 2019 marked by the split in three equal parts of the opinion of the population about the president and a 2020 that the saw it recover from the erratic response to the Covid-19 pandemic with the first phase of emergency assistance to those affected by the crisis.

This year, with lesser help, there was no reaction. The worsening of the political crisis after the final co-option of the center as an insurance against impeachment, by exclusive option of Bolsonaro, it proves to be an insufficient bet in terms of the population as a whole.

There was also no change that can be attributed to the emptied acts called by right-wing entities last Sunday (12).

There has been no lack of crises since the most recent survey by Datafolha. Bolsonaro paraded tanks and armored vehicles in Brasília, unsuccessfully trying to intimidate the Congress that did not accept the return of the printed vote.

The economy registers serious problems, starting by high inflation and yes threat of energy crisis in the near horizon.

O spending cap overflow is an increasingly talked about hypothesis, and there is little margin of budgetary maneuver to bet on a recovery of popularity supported by populist packages.

This has led to the landing sectors usually sympathetic to the Planalto, as part of agribusiness and the financial market. Apart from the ongoing health crisis that has took almost 590 thousand lives in the country and the perception of federal corruption evidenced in Covid’s CPI.

In this round, Datafolha identified a more significant increase in rejection of the president among those earning from 5 to 10 minimum wages (41% to 50%, from July until now) and among people over 60 years old (from 45% to 51 %).

Significantly, Bolsonaro became more rejected in the aggregate of the North and Midwest regions (16% of the sample), where it usually has more support and where many of the truck drivers who threatened to invade the Supreme Court in the wake of the 7th of September came from. Under many protests, they were later removed by the pressured president.

There, its rejection rose from 41% to 48%, although it is marginally below the national average.

The profile of those who reject the president is similar to that registered before. Bad electoral news, as they make up 51% of the population in the sample, 56% of those who earn up to 2 minimum wages think it is bad or terrible, as well as 61% of those with a college degree (21% of the sample).

Here, in the less wealthy and educated strata, there is a slow spread of negative views about the president. In the aforementioned tier of those who earn up to 2 minimums, in July 54% rejected it. For those who receive 2 to 5 minimums, the rejection went from 47% to 51%, positive oscillation at the limit of the margin of error.

Both groups account for 86% of the population in the Datafolha sample. Another important group, those with elementary education (33% of the sample) saw an even greater rise, from 49% to 55%, while there was stability (49% to 48%) among those who attended secondary education (46% of Brazilians) .

In niches, there are very expressive rejections among gays and bisexuals (6% of respondents), 73%, and among students (4%): 63%.

On the other hand, the richest are the group in which the president’s disapproval more has fallen since July, from 58% to 46%, punctually resuming a correlation that dates back to the campaign that took the retired captain to the presidency.

Among them, 36% consider it great and good. This contingent comprises 3% of the population surveyed. The South (15% of the sample), the president’s bastion since the 2018 dispute, continues to evaluate him better than other regions: 28% of the ears there approve of him.

In detail, entrepreneurs (2% of the respondents) remain the most faithful of the Pocket Narists, with 47% of approval. It is the only group in which the great and good surpasses the bad and terrible (34%).

In the evangelical segment, another base of pocketbookism, the news is not good for the president. Since January, the disapproval of the president has already risen 11 points, and today it is higher (41%) than his approval (29%). In the previous round, there was a technical tie (34% to 37%, respectively).

This occurs in the midst of the campaign for now frustrated to get the former attorney general of the Union André Mendonça, who is a pastor, for a vacancy in the Supreme Court.

The institutional tension since July has been one of the greatest of a government already used to breaking records in the sector. Likewise, Bolsonaro is second only to Fernando Collor de Mello (then in the PRN) in unpopularity at this point in his term, counting here only presidents elected for a first term.

The current senator from Alagoas at this point in his government had 68% rejection, compared to 21% of regular evaluation and only 9% approval. He ended up suffering the opening of an impeachment process as a result, in 1992, resigning to avoid the loss of political rights.

Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB), in turn, registered 16% of bad and terrible, 42% of regular and 39% of approval. PT Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in turn, scored 23%, 40% and 35%, respectively, and his successor Dilma Rousseff (PT) scored similar 22%, 42% and 36%.


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