The electoral race for the presidency in 2022 is stagnant, with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) maintaining a large advantage over Jair Bolsonaro (no party) at the front of the dispute.
Candidates from the lower platoons also follow where they were. The introduction of new third way candidates against the current and former president and the worsening of the political crisis, which culminated in the Bolsonaro’s coup deeds on September 7th, also did not change the picture.
is what points research done by Datafolha from September 13th to 15th, in which 3,667 voters were heard in person in 190 cities. The margin of error is plus or minus two points.
The general scenario suggests that Lula’s momentum in the polls, registered throughout this year, may have been stopped — as well as Bolsonaro’s dehydration, following the same logic.
Datafolha ran four first-round simulations, two of them comparable with previous surveys, and two new ones.
In comparable scenarios, there is stability in relation to previous round carried out by Datafolha, in July.
Lula oscillates from 46% to 44% and Bolsonaro, from 25% to 26%, in a hypothesis in which the toucan candidate is João Doria (SP), who goes from 5% to 4%. In this scenario, Ciro Gomes (PDT) follows in third (from 8% to 9%), all within the margin of error.
The PT member goes from 46% to 42%, and Bolsonaro remains at 25%, in the simulation in which the PSDB’s name is Eduardo Leite (RS) — which fluctuates from 3% to 4%. The difference in the scenario with the Gaucho is that Ciro Gomes (PDT) jumps from 9% to 12%.
The new scenarios don’t change the equation either. In the more closed, only with Lula, Bolsonaro, Ciro and Doria, they keep the distances recorded in other simulations.
At the most open, the news is disheartening for enthusiasts of a third way in the dispute at the moment, even more after the failed act against Bolsonaro on Sunday (12) in São Paulo have joined some of the postulants to the Planalto.
The top four of the closed stage stay where they are, and a platoon of names fanned by parties and politicians has recently formed a technical tie with Doria.
They are the presenter José Luiz Datena (PSL, 4%), senator Simone Tebet (MDB, 2%), the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM, 1%), and former minister Aldo Rebelo (no party, 1%). Senator Alessandro Vieira (Citizenship), who like Tebet tries his luck from the platform obtained in the CPI of Covid, did not score.
Also homogeneously, the scenarios include about 10% of white, null or none of the nominees votes.
The slumber tends to prove the assessment made in the main political circles that the game will continue in this way, barring some serious complications, until the candidacies’ bottleneck from April onwards.
This is what Doria’s group is betting on, in case it is confirmed in the tucanas in November, and the names that aim to boost Pacheco, with chief Gilberto Kassab (PSD) at the head.
It’s a hope of the centre-right: that Bolsonaro’s popularity melts may derail the president at the polls and make room for a new anti-Lula in October 2022.
For members of the centrão now with Bolsonaro, and even of the PSD away from Planalto, however, the PT appears as a perhaps more proven working hypothesis — everyone was with Lula and Dilma Rousseff (PT) in their governments.
For now, Lula is working so that the turmoil does not worsen to the point, for example, that there is now a remote possibility that the president will suffer an impeachment process. Bolsonaro is, from this point of view, his ideal opponent.
At this moment, the PT member remains unbeatable in the second round simulations. It beats Bolsonaro by 56% to 31%, against 58% to 31% recorded in July.
Doria would lose to Lula by 55% to 23% (56% to 22% in July) and Ciro by 51% to 29% — a scenario considered quite difficult, since the pedetista has the same loyal audience of the other three elections he disputed (1998, 2002 and 2018), at around 10%, but it travels in a leftist spectrum dominated by the PT.
In this research, Ciro scores better among people with higher education and among the youngest (around 14% in the speculated scenarios).
For the PSDB, that due to the state weight and the history of competitiveness until the failure of Geraldo Alckmin in 2018 it is a party around which joints revolve, the situation is only comfortable in the also remote (today, as is convenient in Brazilian politics) of Doria facing Bolsonaro in a second round.
In this case, the paulista wins by 46% to 34% (46% to 35% in the previous round). But the research shows some of the bottlenecks that afflict toucan strategists.
Neither Doria nor Leite have penetration in the country’s second electoral market, the Northeast, which has 26% of the Datafolha survey sample. Both rotate between 1% and 2% of voting intentions there.
For Doria, there is homework to be done: in São Paulo, her state, it registers between 7% and 10% of voting intentions. Milk, in the southern region where he lives, is 8%. Not by chance, this week the tucano launched an ambitious program of works and investments.
Lula lives up to his fame as the king of the Northeast. It marks 61% of voting intentions there, and a huge 42% when the question is answered spontaneously, without the presentation of sheets with the names of the candidates.
In this measurement, however, the general picture is one of stability. The rise that Lula made at the beginning of the year, when it was 21%, to 26% in July, was stopped. It reached 27%. Bolsonaro was in the same line, ranging from 19% to 20%.
Lula has his greatest advantages among the poorest (up to 34 points over Bolsonaro), less educated (31 points), young people (29 points) and women (25 points).
The president, on the other hand, draws his strength from the richest (42% to 23% of Lula) and, mainly, from the evangelical electorate. His support base since the 2018 campaign, the group that makes up 26% of the population sample gives him 38% to 34% against the PT in one simulation and 36% to 32% in another.
It’s a technical draw, but within the margin of error. Interestingly, it does not reflect the erosion of the president’s popularity, which gained 11 rejection points among evangelicals this year, reaching a negative 41% rating.
All this takes place under the strong impact of Bolsonaro’s authoritarian escalation, which culminated in the acts of the 7th of September. From July until now, there was a clash with Congress, an attempt to impeach the Supreme Minister, armored vehicles parading through Brasília to simulate military support, and an acute clash with the Judiciary.
All this in theory went into a containment mode after the setback from intervention of former president Michel Temer (MDB), who pulled out a promise of armistice from Bolsonaro with minister Alexandre de Moraes. Few believe it will be lasting, however, even longer with political defeats awaiting you.
Meanwhile, the government is trying to pull out its last guns to try to gain some popularity, a move focused on trying to create an expanded Bolsa Família. Even tax increases have already entered the dance, measuring the nervousness of the Planalto, which deals with high inflation, the risk of spending capping and even the fear of a blackout.